Swedish wind power plants lost billions yearly for seven straight years with average -35% margins despite 300 billion kr investments.
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Wind power production increased fifteenfold since 2008 with 300 billion kr invested. Operators of 80% of wind production analyzed from 2017-23 showed losses every year. Turnover tripled but losses grew with 4.6 billion kr lost in 2023 alone. Average margin after financial costs was -35%. Without origin guarantees subsidies losses would hit -54% margin and 5.9 billion kr in 2023. Over half of wind turbines in companies losing money all years except 2018-19. Losses not tied to turbine age as older plants show rising maintenance costs. Investments and losses concentrated in Norrland with two-thirds of builds and -65% average margins. Norrland has lowest demand and prices but easiest for political builds due to space and less opposition. Wind expansion causes price cannibalization with negative prices during high winds hurting all wind operators. Political subsidies like declining elcertifikat drove rapid buildout based on optimistic assumptions. Project developers like OX2 profited hugely at 90% ROE while operators lost money. Long lead times turn initial opportunities into losses amid oversupply. Turbine makers like Vestas face falling sales profitability from warranty issues on taller turbines. No evidence of learning curves or scale economies improving operator results. Expansion continues due to subsidies distorting markets and lack of industry-wide loss data.

Sweden Economy Green Deal Politics Energetics Europe and the EU

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