FBI known offenders show 55.9% black in 2019. Model using CDC victims estimates 60% black and 35% white homicides. Blacks perpetrate homicides at 8 times white per capita rate from 1980-2020. Black victimization rate 6 times white rate. More black-on-white than white-on-black homicides. FBI underestimates black offenders increasingly since 2010 due to lower clearance in black areas. Unknown offenders disproportionately black. Lower bound for black offenders in 2020 is 59% versus FBI's 56.5%. Black offending rate exceeds victimization rate while white offending below victimization. Intra-racial rate for whites 88%, for blacks 81% from FBI data. Hispanics victimized at 2x non-Hispanic white rate but 4.3x lower than blacks. Model matches FBI closely until 1996 then diverges with FBI undercounting blacks. Clearance gap widens black offender undercount. Victim proportions match offender estimates due to mostly intra-racial homicides. Black proportion of offenders rose in model versus FBI known. Hispanics comprise third of white victims driving some white stats.
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