Repeat offenders drive most crime – prisons cut crime via incapacitation. Nordic rehabilitation success is exaggerated myth. US recidivism closer to Nordic than believed after adjusting definitions. Norway's 20% rate uses narrow 2-year new sentence measure vs US 76% 5-year rearrest. Comparable US incarceration rate is 28.8% vs Norway 20%. Norway jails low-recidivism traffic offenders, artificially lowering rates. Excluding traffic offenders raises Norway rate to 25%. Deporting foreign prisoners further drops Norway's reported recidivism by 3-5 points. US violent crime far higher yet recidivism similar, indicating under-policing. Nordic 2-year reconviction: Norway 20%, others ~33% – US ~33%. Swedish prisons show no rehab differences when tracking same prisoners across facilities. Therapy fails to reduce recidivism after correcting publication bias. No broad interventions drastically cut recidivism. Medication helps specific psychiatric cases only. Age and sex strongly predict recidivism – longer sentences aid via aging. US white-only recidivism included in comparisons but still higher than Nordics. Compositional effects dominate cross-national differences over rehab.
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