Talent beats hard work, explaining most variance in esports ranks and lifetime income.
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Esports pros hit top ranks in 6-24 months due to innate talent. Account level explains only 10% of League of Legends rank variance. Hours played explain 6% of Starcraft rank variation. Hours worked explain just 6.6% of lifetime earnings inequality after correcting standard deviations. Yearly hours explain 40-50% of income cross-sectionally but far less for lifetime earnings. Conscientiousness correlates only 0.07-0.11 with income even corrected for attenuation. Genetics drive 40-60% of permanent income variance. Shared environment explains 5-20% of income variance. Unshared environment accounts for 30-50% but includes innate differences like twin height and IQ. Talent requires one path to rewards while conscientiousness needs two, attenuating its effect. Hard workers get feedback loops boosting earnings beyond hours alone. Conscientiousness is innate like other traits. Talent makes work easier but hard work does not create talent. Peer-rated conscientiousness predicts job performance at r=0.55 corrected but leaves 70% variance unexplained. Hard work sorts within talent strata but rarely crosses them. Luck is fleeting unlike stable talent. Hyperfocus might outperform hours but stems from unconscious cognitive talent.

Genetics Intelligence Psychology Economy Science

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