China's climate policies and 2035 NDC rated highly insufficient for 1.5°C limit.
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China commits to 7-10% net GHG cut from peak by 2035 as floor for ambition. CO2 emissions peaked or stabilized at 15.1-15.2 GtCO2e in 2025 excluding LULUCF. Renewables hit 40% of power generation driving 1% CO2 drop in early 2025. Exceeded 2030 wind-solar target at 1400 GW by 2024. Forest stock surpassed 20bn m³ ahead of 2030 goal. On track for 25% non-fossil energy share by 2030. Risks missing 18% CO2 intensity cut by 2025 under 14th FYP. 2030 NDC 65% intensity cut from 2005 requires emissions below 14.4 GtCO2e. Projected 2030 emissions 14.6-15.3 GtCO2e under current policies. New coal construction hit 94 GW in 2024 exceeding world rest combined. NDC targets highly insufficient against modelled domestic pathways. NDC targets insufficient against fair share equity principles. 2060 neutrality LTS rated poor. Needs halting new coal to avoid lock-in. Embodies massive trade carbon exports widening import-export gap to 1.8 GtCO2 by 2019.

Northeast Asia Global warming Coal Ecology Politics

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