OCHA-Rockefeller partnership builds predictive models for COVID-19 outbreaks in fragile humanitarian countries like DRC and South Sudan.
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Centre partners with Rockefeller Foundation to boost predictive analytics for anticipatory humanitarian action. Created COVID-19 model estimating outbreak scale in Afghanistan, extended to DRC, South Sudan, Sudan. Models simulate response strategies for general, humanitarian, refugee populations. Piloting anticipatory frameworks for floods in Bangladesh, droughts in Chad, Ethiopia, Malawi, Somalia, cholera in sub-Saharan Africa. Established Peer Review Framework to assess model rigor, readiness, ethics. Tested peer review on Netherlands Red Cross and Danish Refugee Council models. Closing data gaps in health, education, food security for crises. Only half of data available for long-standing humanitarian crises. Lacking sub-national, gender-disaggregated data on comorbidities like TB, HIV. Using road density as proxy for mobility data. Launched COVID-19 data page on HDX. Humanitarian needs at highest levels, 265 million at starvation risk by 2020 end. Predictive analytics demanded by OCHA leadership for earlier responses. Partnership scales model development, peer review, data sharing.

Negroes HIV Health Netherlands Science Technology

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